Northern Ireland has recorded its highest level of net migration in 15 years, with a total of 7,500 more people moving into the region than leaving, according to official data from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra). In 2023, 30,500 people arrived to live in Northern Ireland, while 23,000 left. The net increase in population is primarily attributed to international migration, as migration within the UK balanced out.
Steady Rise in International Migration Post-Pandemic
International migration has been on the rise since 2020, after a decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. The overall population of Northern Ireland grew by 9,800 people last year, bringing the total to 1.92 million. This increase is not only due to migration; a natural population growth was also observed, with more births than deaths.
Migration Overtakes Natural Growth
For the first time since 2007, migration was the main driver of population growth in Northern Ireland. This shift is reflected in other economic indicators as well, such as the increase in payroll workers. Between December 2022 and December 2023, the number of payrolled employees in the region grew by 12,900. This growth included 4,800 UK workers and 9,200 international workers, highlighting the impact of migration on the workforce.
Diverse Reasons for Immigration
Nisra’s data reveal that the motivations for moving to Northern Ireland are varied. Just over 30% of immigrants came for work opportunities, 18% for education, 30% for family reasons, and 13% sought asylum. The top three countries of origin were India, the Republic of Ireland, and Nigeria, as indicated by new medical card registrations.
Impact of Post-Brexit Rule Changes
Analysis from Ulster University suggests that changes in UK immigration rules post-Brexit have led to an increase in migration from India. The new rules make it more difficult for non-Irish EU nationals to move to the UK for lower-wage jobs. However, the liberalization of the visa system for high-skilled and medical professionals has attracted more workers from India and other Asian countries.
Migration Bolsters Working-Age Population
Migration has been crucial in supporting Northern Ireland’s working-age population, which consists of individuals aged 16-64. In 2023, this demographic grew by 4,000, entirely due to the influx of migrants. Without migration, the working-age population would have declined, posing challenges for the labor market and economic growth.
Northern Ireland’s Aging Population
Despite the boost from migration, Northern Ireland is still grappling with an aging population. The number of people over 65 increased by 2.1% over the past year, while the number of children fell slightly. Currently, just under 18% of the population is over 65, compared to just over 15% a decade ago. It is estimated that as of June 30, 2023, there were about 290 people aged 100 or more in Northern Ireland, the majority of whom were women.
This demographic shift highlights the ongoing changes in Northern Ireland’s population structure, influenced by both migration and an aging society.
